Scratchers Edge tracks prize availability on Western Canada Lottery Corporation (WCLC) scratch tickets over time. By collecting weekly snapshots of remaining prize counts, we can estimate how fast tickets are selling, which top prizes are still unclaimed, and — crucially — how your odds have changed since a game launched.
📡 Data Collection
WCLC publishes remaining prize counts for each scratch ticket on their website. Scratchers Edge captures these counts on a regular basis, creating a historical record of how prizes are depleted over time. Each capture is called a snapshot.
What we track per snapshot
For every active ticket: the number of prizes remaining at each prize tier (e.g., how many $1,000,000 prizes are left, how many $500 prizes, etc.).
We record the date of each snapshot so we can calculate depletion rates over time.
The more snapshots we have for a ticket, the more accurate our trends and estimates become. Newer tickets may only have one or two data points, so treat their estimates with more caution.
🎟️ What WCLC Publishes (And What They Don't)
WCLC publishes the number of remaining prizes for prizes $100 and above only. They explicitly do not publish counts for smaller prizes ($10, $20, $50), which make up the vast majority of winners by volume but are not individually tracked.
WCLC also does not publish how many total tickets were printed for each game. This means we cannot calculate exact absolute odds. What we can do — accurately — is track how quickly the published $100+ prizes are being claimed, and use that as a reliable proxy for overall ticket sell-through.
📊 Estimated % Sold
We track how many of each prize tier ($100+) existed when we first recorded the ticket, versus how many remain today. The percentage of those prizes that have been claimed is a reliable proxy for the percentage of tickets that have been sold.
This works because all prizes are randomly distributed throughout the entire print run — they deplete at roughly the same rate as overall ticket sales. This is how licensed lottery games are designed to work.
Why not use the stated odds to estimate total tickets?
The stated odds (e.g., "1 in 4.34") reflect winning anything, including all the sub-$100 prizes that WCLC doesn't publish counts for. Those small prizes are the vast majority by count — so multiplying tracked prizes by the odds would produce a wildly understated ticket count. We don't display a figure we can't calculate reliably.
Why we require 3+ prize tiers before showing odds improvement
A ticket with only one or two tracked prize tiers gives us limited evidence that tickets are actually selling. A single tier declining could be noise, or a result of an imperfect first snapshot.
When a ticket has three or more prize tiers all showing consistent depletion — say, $100, $500, $1,000, and $5,000 prizes all declining across snapshots — that's strong, corroborating evidence that tickets are selling through. Only in that case do we calculate and display the odds improvement for the top prize. The more tiers with data, the more confidence you can place in the estimate.
🎯 Odds Improvement Multiplier
This is the core insight behind Scratchers Edge. The stated odds on a ticket represent your average chance of winning any prize at launch. They don't change much as tickets sell through — winners and non-winners deplete together.
But the odds of finding a specific unclaimed prize — especially the top prize — improve proportionally as the ticket pool shrinks. If a $1,000,000 prize is still out there after 75% of tickets have been sold, it's 4× easier to find in the remaining pool than it was at launch.
e.g., if 75% of tickets have sold → Multiplier = 1 ÷ 0.25 = 4×
The key scenario Scratchers Edge watches for: lower prize tiers ($100–$10,000) are showing steady depletion, but the top prize remains unclaimed. This is the signal that tickets are actively selling while the big prize is still out there — which means genuine, measurable improvement in your odds of finding it.
| Scenario | Est. % Sold | Top Prize | Odds Multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| At launch | 0% | Unclaimed | 1× (baseline) |
| 50% sold, prize still out there | 50% | Unclaimed | ▲ 2× better |
| 75% sold, prize still out there | 75% | Unclaimed | ▲ 4× better |
We show this as a multiplier (e.g., "▲ 4× better odds") rather than an absolute "1 in X" number, since we can't calculate total tickets from the data WCLC publishes. The multiplier only appears on tickets with 3 or more tracked prize tiers, where the sell-through estimate is well-supported by multiple independent data points.
📉 Depletion Rate & Trends
The depletion rate measures how quickly prizes are being claimed, expressed as prizes lost per day between the first and most recent snapshot.
We use this to classify each ticket's trend:
🔥 Selling Fast
Depletion rate is well above the average for all active tickets. Prizes are being claimed quickly — if there's a top prize still out there, it may not last long.
🐢 Slow Depletion
Depletion rate is below average. This ticket isn't selling particularly fast, meaning top prizes may have more time on shelves.
➖ Stable
Depletion rate is near the average for active tickets.
📷 1 Snapshot
We only have one data point for this ticket. We can't calculate a trend yet — check back after the next data update.
💡 Value Score
The Value Score is a single number we calculate to help surface tickets worth considering. It's a weighted formula that rewards:
- High top prize still available — the bigger the unclaimed prize, the better
- Slow depletion — tickets selling slowly have prizes that last longer
- Lots of prizes remaining — more prizes left means more chances to win
The Value Score is relative — it's most useful for ranking tickets against each other, not as an absolute measure of expected return. A score of 80 doesn't mean an 80% chance of winning; it just means this ticket ranks well against others currently available.
🏷️ Ticket Labels
Each ticket is automatically assigned a label based on its current status:
BUY Good value
The top prize is still available, the ticket has been on the market long enough to have trend data, and depletion is slow. These are the tickets Scratchers Edge thinks are worth considering.
NEW Recently released
This ticket was released within the last 60 days. We may only have one or two snapshots, so trend data is limited. The top prize is still available.
WATCH Monitor before buying
Active ticket with the top prize available, but depletion rate is average or above. Worth keeping an eye on but not a standout pick.
PASS Top prize gone
The top prize for this ticket has already been claimed. Smaller prizes may still be available, but the best reason to buy is gone.
⚠️ Limitations & Caveats
We believe in transparency. Here's what we don't know — and why it matters:
We don't know how many tickets were printed
WCLC doesn't publish print run sizes, and we can't reliably reverse-engineer them. The stated odds (e.g., "1 in 4.34") cover ALL prizes including small ones that WCLC doesn't individually track. Using only the published major prize counts would dramatically underestimate the total ticket count, so we don't display that figure.
WCLC only publishes major prize tiers
Small prizes like $10 or $20 wins make up the vast majority of total prize count but aren't published individually. Our "% sold" estimate is based on major prize depletion, which is a reliable proxy — but it's an estimate, not an exact figure.
We don't know how many winning tickets are unclaimed
A winning ticket that hasn't been scratched yet still counts as a "remaining" prize from WCLC's perspective. We have no way to separate unclaimed winners sitting in a drawer from tickets still on store shelves.
Tickets are not necessarily randomly distributed geographically
A top prize ticket could be sitting in a single store in a specific city. The odds multiplier we calculate is an average across the entire remaining print run — your local retailer's stock is unknown.
Our snapshots are not real-time
Prize counts are updated whenever WCLC publishes new data. Between updates, prizes may have been claimed that aren't yet reflected here. Always check wclc.com for the most current official counts before making a purchase decision.
Better odds don't guarantee a win
A "4× better odds" multiplier is meaningful for comparison — but scratch tickets are still games of chance. This is a tool for informed comparison, not a prediction system.
🎰 Remember: scratch tickets are gambling
No analysis tool changes the fundamental nature of scratch tickets. They are a form of entertainment, and the house always has an edge. Never spend more than you can afford to lose.
If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, help is available 24/7. Call the Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700 or visit connexontario.ca.